![]() in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: Theory. Detection of volcanic influence on global precipitation. A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. Pattern scaling, an examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates. Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations. Temporary acceleration of the hydrological cycle in response to a CO2 rampdown. A surface energy perspective on climate change. Controls of global-mean precipitation increases in global warming GCM experiments. Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land-hydrological cycle. Reversal of the trend in global anthropogenic sulphur emissions. From dimming to brightening: Decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth’s surface. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset. Constraints on the future changes in the hydrological cycle. On CO2 climate sensitivity and model dependence of results. The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. Changes in continental freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004. Enlightening global dimming and brightening. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. ![]() An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database. Reductions in air pollution have already shown an intensification in the past two decades 12, 13, 14 and a further rapid increase in precipitation could be expected if the current trend continues. The net result of these two counter-acting effects is an insignificant trend in the global hydrological cycle, but the individual influence of each is substantial. Analysing state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we find for the first time that there was a detectable weakening of the hydrological cycle between the 1950s and the 1980s, attributable to increased anthropogenic aerosols, after which the hydrological cycle recovered as a result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we show that this apparent discrepancy can be resolved when the effects of tropospheric aerosols are considered. Observed land precipitation 2, 3, 4 and global river discharges 5 do not show an increasing trend as might be expected in a warming world 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. ![]() Changes in the hydrological cycle have a direct impact on droughts, floods, water resources and ecosystem services. ![]() A significant amount of the energy the Earth receives from the Sun is redistributed around the world by the hydrological cycle in the form of latent heat flux 1. The global hydrological cycle is a key component of Earth’s climate system.
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